2019 is here. My simplistic calculation. A president needs 24 states.
Here's a quick snap:
1. North-Central (7 States): Niger, Kogi, Benue, Plateau, Nassarawa, Kwara & the FCT.
Verdict: Three states certain for incumbent; Niger, Kogi, Nassarawa. Four States in play.
2. North-East (6 States): Bauchi, Borno, Taraba, Adamawa, Gombe & Yobe.
Verdict: Four states dead certain for incumbent; Bauchi, Borno, Gombe & Yobe. Two states in play but 60% chance the incumbent takes them.
3. North-West (7 States): Zamfara, Sokoto, Kaduna, Kano, Kebbi, Katsina & Jigawa.
Verdict: All seven for incumbent.
No state in play even if some might disagree. Clean sweep.
4. South-East (5 States): Enugu, Imo, Ebonyi, Anambra & Abia.
Verdict: Really? The Opposition's wet dream. Incumbent can't take 15%.
5. South-South (6 States): Delta, Edo, Akwaibom, Cross River, Rivers & Bayelsa.
Verdict: See #4. Incumbent can struggle for Edo but that's about it.
6. South-West (6 States): Lagos, Oyo, Ondo, Ogun, Osun & Ekiti.
Verdict: Like 2015, these states will decide an election. Again. Incumbent has too many entrenched political juggernauts on his side. But. In politics, ANYBODY can be flipped.
There is your 2019 in a snapshot.
Temisan Okomi (Journalist/presenter)
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